Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity provided through current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
