Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
